The latest on the snow and weather in southeast Australia

Snow Forecast

Very cold weather from Thursday night, with snow to near sea level likely. Alpine areas can expect 15 to 25 cm of very cold, very dry snow. Easing Saturday, light winds return.

Presented by: aussieskier.com

Summary:

A powerful weather system will bring a significant cold outbreak to the southeast of the country on Thursday night and through Friday. Here are a few things about this system:

  • A strong cold front will cross through on Thursday afternoon and evening. An associated low pressure system will then pass just south of Tasmania, pushing a trough or second surge across Victoria/southern NSW on Friday.
  • A rainband will affect the alps on Thursday afternoon / evening - rapidly changing to snow. This has such a tight temperature gradient that we should have snow falling to 1800 metres in the east and 600 metres over southwest Victoria, at the same time.
  • The associated low is south of Tasmania (bad for sustained/heavy snow), BUT there is that second surge (good for sustained/heavy snow). There is not too long before it changes to snow (we will see most of the precipitation as snow).
  • This brings a significant cold outbreak. Snow will fall down to at least 500 metres, across southern Victoria - and I would expect we will see falls down to 300 metres over the Melbourne / central area, and Gippsland on Friday afternoon and evening. Tasmania can expect snow to sea level on Friday afternoon and evening. If you like watching thickness lines, that purple one - the 520 - is right up over Tasmania on this morning's run of ACCESS-R. That doesn't happen very often.

Alpine areas can expect snow from late Thursday afternoon (far west) to early Saturday morning, bringing 15 to 25 cm.

The next high moves across us on the weekend, turning it dry and cold with lighter winds.

Day

Forecast

Likely Snow

Rest of Thursday

Snow

Light rain at times in the morning and afternoon. A burst of heavy rain in the afternoon/evening, rapidly changing to persistent, heavy snow (from west to east). Turning cold at night.

Strong NW winds, turning W at night.

Snowmaking potential? High later

1800m - 10cm

1500m - 5cm

1200m - 2cm

Friday

Snow

Persistent snow, heavy at times. Very cold.

Strong NW then SW winds.

Snowmaking potential? High

1800m - 10-15cm

1500m - 10-15cm

1200m - 5-15cm

Saturday

Partly cloudy

The chance of snow showers, otherwise dry and very cold.

Light winds.

Snowmaking potential? High

1800m - 1cm

1500m - 1cm

1200m - 1cm

Sunday

Sunny

Dry, sunny and cold.

Light winds.

Snowmaking potential? High

1800m - 0cm

1500m - 0cm

1200m - 0cm

Monday

Sunny

Dry and sunny.

Light winds.

Snowmaking potential? High

1800m - 0cm

1500m - 0cm

1200m - 0cm

aussieskier

Outlook:

High pressure will push cold fronts to our south, but energy from one of these (on Monday) gets moved up over central Australia. This will suck moisture in from the Pacific (wrapping around the high), and may produce widespread rain over the eastern states.

High pressure will continue to dominate, but we will be watching this eastern rain interact with a low pressure system later in the week - with the potential for heavy snow here.

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Latest snow forecasts

Forecast of clouds, precipitation, wind, temperature and pressure for the next few days, from the EC weather model.
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