A trough in the eastern interior is scooping up moisture coming into Queensland from the Pacific Ocean (flowing around the high). This started falling as rain in inland Queensland and NSW yesterday (some areas saw over 40mm), and has reached Victoria this morning. It is not as wet here, and so patchy, light rain will spread throughout Victoria (slowly coming down from the northwest), but the only the northeast should see something add up to more than 5mm (locally 15mm on the ranges). Far eastern Gippsland may pick up more than 5mm if winds are northeasterly when it falls there overnight. It is too warm for snow with alpine temperatures likely to be more than +2C.
System two: a trough from the northwest
A trough (over Western Australia this morning) should push across Victoria on Thursday. This one brings moisture from the Indian Ocean, and utilises what moisture is already now in the east. It will spread light rain throughout Victoria, with the northwest and northeast seeing the biggest falls (of 5 to 10 mm, locally 15mm on the ranges). Again it is too warm for snow with alpine temperatures likely to be more than +2C. So, that is possibly 30mm of rain there so far.
System three: a cold front from the northwest
A cold front crosses Victoria later on Friday. It brings an initial band of showers or rain, followed by showers. The activity should be greatest southwest of Ouyen to Bendigo to Traralgon, and over the northeast ranges. This one starts off as rain in alpine areas, with showers falling as snow on the higher parts of the resorts by evening. Showers continue near and south of the ranges on Saturday, but the activity is isolated.
System four: a strong, cold, cold front
A stronger front, that has proper cold air behind it, approaches the southwest on Saturday night, and crosses through Victoria on Sunday morning. This one should also have a band of showers or rain, followed by showers. It starts as snow on the higher parts of the alpine resorts, before turning to snow throughout. This system is cold, and may bring local thunder with small pellets of hail in gusty showers on Sunday and Monday.
System five: a strong, cold, cold front
Another strong front looks to line up and push the trailing high pressure system out of the way, affecting Victoria from Tuesday. This one also has cold air with it, and it currently looks like the controlling system in the upper atmosphere will stay with us for the rest of the week. Just in time for me to go skiing that weekend
—
So, the sunshine has gone, and is replaced by a lot of weather that should keep coming until the end of next week.
Latest rainfall projection for the next eight days:
Averaged rainfall projection for today through to next Wednesday – www.bom.gov.au
The sun has gone – five weather systems coming our way
Wednesday July 28: 10:15am
After sitting under a high for an eternity, we have what looks to be five weather systems that should affect Victoria in the next week.
The first is today:
System one: a trough from the north
A trough in the eastern interior is scooping up moisture coming into Queensland from the Pacific Ocean (flowing around the high). This started falling as rain in inland Queensland and NSW yesterday (some areas saw over 40mm), and has reached Victoria this morning. It is not as wet here, and so patchy, light rain will spread throughout Victoria (slowly coming down from the northwest), but the only the northeast should see something add up to more than 5mm (locally 15mm on the ranges). Far eastern Gippsland may pick up more than 5mm if winds are northeasterly when it falls there overnight. It is too warm for snow with alpine temperatures likely to be more than +2C.
System two: a trough from the northwest
A trough (over Western Australia this morning) should push across Victoria on Thursday. This one brings moisture from the Indian Ocean, and utilises what moisture is already now in the east. It will spread light rain throughout Victoria, with the northwest and northeast seeing the biggest falls (of 5 to 10 mm, locally 15mm on the ranges). Again it is too warm for snow with alpine temperatures likely to be more than +2C. So, that is possibly 30mm of rain there so far.
System three: a cold front from the northwest
A cold front crosses Victoria later on Friday. It brings an initial band of showers or rain, followed by showers. The activity should be greatest southwest of Ouyen to Bendigo to Traralgon, and over the northeast ranges. This one starts off as rain in alpine areas, with showers falling as snow on the higher parts of the resorts by evening. Showers continue near and south of the ranges on Saturday, but the activity is isolated.
System four: a strong, cold, cold front
A stronger front, that has proper cold air behind it, approaches the southwest on Saturday night, and crosses through Victoria on Sunday morning. This one should also have a band of showers or rain, followed by showers. It starts as snow on the higher parts of the alpine resorts, before turning to snow throughout. This system is cold, and may bring local thunder with small pellets of hail in gusty showers on Sunday and Monday.
System five: a strong, cold, cold front
Another strong front looks to line up and push the trailing high pressure system out of the way, affecting Victoria from Tuesday. This one also has cold air with it, and it currently looks like the controlling system in the upper atmosphere will stay with us for the rest of the week. Just in time for me to go skiing that weekend
—
So, the sunshine has gone, and is replaced by a lot of weather that should keep coming until the end of next week.
Latest rainfall projection for the next eight days: